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Written by rosalind renshaw

Allsop, the UK auctioneer, is to hold a sale in Ireland where every lot will be a repossession.

The sale will include flats expected to go for £21,000 – 75% down from their peak value.

The April 15 sale will be the country's first-ever mass auction of repossessed homes.

And, in a sign of how wide the property crash is, the latest item to turn up in another auction sale in Dublin is a job lot of 15 cranes.

Allsop's online catalogue has  84 lots in the residential sale, which include everything from flats to family homes.

They include a four-bedroom family home in south Dublin with a price tag of €400,000. Estate agents say even modest homes in this part of the city would easily have fetched €2m in the good times.

Most of the lots were previously owned by property investors who have gone into receivership or simply handed back the keys to the banks.

It is predicted that Irish house prices, which are already down 45% from their peak, may have still further to drop.

Comments

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    Jonnie: I am certainly no stranger to r'n'r, or Sibley's... on this site.

    Like you, I believe they bring healthy discussion to the table without (usually) any anymosity or loss of rag.

    You may well have missed, during your recent sudden disappearance from our screens, that I have even turned 'Buyers Agent' (UNPAID, I hasten to mention...) for my desperate-to-buy-but-a-bit-strapped mate Sib..., and am still hopeful of getting a cracking price agreed for him on Mr Hendry's pad - although I feel it in me old bones that getting the man himself to reduce to HIS interpretation of 'market value' is going to be a bit tricky... especially when he refuses to talk to me and keeps telling me to 'go away' whenever I post on HIS blog! ;0)

    In the meantime, give me either - or both - of these two named characters anytime!

    • 23 March 2011 11:51 AM
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    Richard - I didn't force anybody to reply, honest... Seems that the replies are running at about twice the level of my postings too.

    • 22 March 2011 14:13 PM
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    Rant- trying to justify your unfortunate situation, for which we do sympathise, you have deflected any informed comment from this story

    • 22 March 2011 13:31 PM
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    PeeBee,

    Rant is becoming a bit of a regular here and I asked about his presence on an EA forum when he first popped up and he said then it was because he was interested in what we were all saying.

    I think it’s done him a bit of good, not sure but no one is going to sell him a house just yet no matter what we all say.

    Better than living on a diet of HPC only though – call him a ‘moderate’, yes that’s the right word, not a wide eyed loon proclaiming the end of all agents, the market and so on but and in the middle sort of chap.

    There are guys on HPC that pump in thousands of posts, most of it drivel, Rant comes on here and does a pretty respectable job, especially when you bear in mind that twit ‘Realising Reality’ is strictly speaking one of us we could have done a lot worse than having Rant in the mix

    Jonnie

    ………….I hope we aren’t going to get over run with ‘extremists’ now – there’s no telling that lot.

    • 22 March 2011 13:19 PM
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    "Don't recall ever posting on the EAT site asking for advice...?"

    Mate - you didn't. We simply can't help ourselves! The thing is, the old phrase "If I had a quid for every..." comes into play here.

    Mine is " If I had a quid for every time I have told someone that the RIGHT TIME to buy is when they see something they want, then I'd be rich." If I had a quid for every time someone followed my words and benefitted from them, I'd be richer - but only in satisfaction terms. MY advice is always free - and honest. I wouldn't advise YOU to do anything that I wouldn't advise my own kids to do - or do myself.

    In my opinion - based on over 30 years of being DEEP in the property industry, is that NO-ONE should put economics in front of instinct unless the purchase is plainly and simply a money-making opportunity.

    I wish that some of the posters on here could be sitting in front of you. What you read on this site is only the tip of a massive iceberg of experience. Yes - there are people you will meet who had a bad experience and say they will never repeat it. But as you like statistics, let me tell you that it is probably one person in every several hundred that look at it that way. THOSE are miniscule odds - you are an educated, intelligent person (there IS a differential...) - why should YOU want to play those odds?

    • 22 March 2011 12:48 PM
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    Don't recall ever posting on the EAT site asking for advice...?

    • 22 March 2011 11:40 AM
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    A lot of my peers who have bought a property in recent years, having been told by 'experts' that house prices only go up, are now in negative equity and struggling to pay an oversized mortgage they overstretched to.

    Let me guess, experts with something to sell them? There s a big difference here Rant. I will not benefit 1 single penny from helping you. I too know people who have overstretched and are in negative equity but they ignored what I was telling them.

    Negative equity does not last for very long and even those who bought in November 2007 will eventually work themselves out of NE as long as they don't need to move in the short term.

    Treat the folk on EAT with respect and you will be getting proper advice.

    • 22 March 2011 10:44 AM
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    That's a reasonable summary Jonnie - friends around me are battening down the hatches when it comes to spending and job security.

    The south is of course not detached from the rest of the country. I would like to see a lot of government incentives to see businesses relocate from that area and set-up shop elsewhere. Would ease the acute shortage of family-sized housing down there as well.

    Markets rarely remain stable. Either the south is going to come to the rescue of the rest of the country, or the rest of the country's economic woes are going to come knocking on the south's doors.

    In relation to the housing market, the weeks and months after the spring bounce are going to show more of where things are heading - up or down!

    • 22 March 2011 10:44 AM
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    Rant,

    Ive had a think about this and I see your view very clearly, im going to compare you to a close friend of mine who is moving now……………..

    Right, from what I know (we don’t talk about salaries as such) he is a 35 year old family man with 2 kids and one on the way, he works for a massive software business and all throughout the down turn his company and his personal salary has been unaffected / gone up – not sure why but some industries just weren’t – it the EA version of Lettings.

    He lives in a really nice village with brilliant schools, mainline station and where negative equity wasn’t a word used much even when I had a white XR3 as a company car and the internet was something Bill Gates thought might be a runner.

    Once in while properties come up in a particular road and he’s always wanted one, has done for ages – anyway, one came up and along with half the village he wanted it so he’s switching his current house to buy to let and he’s going for it / had a deal agreed

    On the other side you are in an area where supply is and always has been plentiful, its not as in demand as some areas, you are fundamentally happy in rented and do not have the same medium term view of the economy and how that will affect you.

    He is confident, you are not………….he will buy when he sees a house he wants, you will wait until you feel a bit more like him?

    Jonnie

    • 22 March 2011 10:14 AM
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    FYI Rant had just graduated in 1998... Worked hard during the vacations so I graduated with a positive bank balance - just. Mum and Dad's financial position was not an enviable one then and isn't now. Back in those days, I believe mortgage providers actually checked those they were lending money to do could do more than fog up a mirror.

    ' ' suggested I am paying 8K in rent, so I am 'throwing money away'. I've explained more about my situation and am suggesting that actually being in rented accommodation is in fact making it easier for me to pay a mortgage in the future, not harder.

    I do not consider myself to have fallen on hard times or in need of sympathy. A lot of my peers who have bought a property in recent years, having been told by 'experts' that house prices only go up, are now in negative equity and struggling to pay an oversized mortgage they overstretched to. I'm grateful not to have had such advice presented to me!

    • 22 March 2011 09:24 AM
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    Thanks Jonnie, If Rant would let himself be helped by proper property professionals and would pass over the information they need to advse him.

    He would find that the obvious confusion over what to do would disappear..

    Rant should have bought in 1998 before he went abroad.

    I won't get a penny in commsiion for helping him, but I am willing to give him the same advice I would give my children.
    I am not interested in which Town he lives but have access to enough money to prove a case for hanging on or buying now, if we know which county he is looking.
    At some point he needs to trust someone who earns a living from selling and renting i order to get an un biased opinion.

    • 22 March 2011 07:24 AM
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    He’s right Rant,

    You’ve gotta stick to one method or another, you can’t go all averages then switch when it suits, that’s bad form

    Jonnie

    • 21 March 2011 17:52 PM
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    £673 is the average rent, to go alongside the average house price.

    You are claiming prices are compound falling at 0.6% per month yet have not challenged stories showing a growth of 0.3% per month. You are seeing what you want to see.

    You stay where you are and keep doing what you are doing I am sure it is right for you.

    • 21 March 2011 17:37 PM
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    8K rent! Flip. You don't live where I live. I'm paying less than 6K pa.

    I returned to the UK in 2008 after a decade abroad (there's some of the detail you wanted Jonnie). Average house prices around here have in that period certainly lost more than the 18K I have paid in rent.

    During the same period, my saved deposit has grown from 60K to 80K - which means there will be substantially less interest to pay on any mortgage I take in the future.

    According to recent 'Halliwide' data, average HPs are falling by about a grand a month. Currently I am saving 500 a month, earning 150 quid on my savings and paying 500 a month in rent. Roughly, that is net 1150 in my favour. I agree that hardly represents an average person's situation, but you are going to have to work very hard to convince me that I have made the wrong decision or ought to buy a house tomorrow!

    • 21 March 2011 17:25 PM
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    Please factor in the £8000/ annum average rent you are paying to stay out of the market.

    • 21 March 2011 17:06 PM
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    Jonnie - that is a well thought through post with an honest assesment in my opinion of where things are at.

    Might I suggest that a lot of the disagreements around this subject on EAT could be avoided if people started their comments by stating which region they were in!

    London prices are no doubt being helped by a weak pound and the cover given to purchasers with dubious backgrounds. According to the Land Reg though, Wales is currently running at over 6% down year on year. Northern Ireland is another story as well.

    Can London stay immune from falls in the regions? Will people be tempted to commute further for cheaper housing? If it weren't for all the human tragedy of unemployment and negative equity, the coming months would be an interesting case study.

    • 21 March 2011 17:01 PM
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    You seem to be using Land Reg data, which annualised is currently running at minus 0.9%, so even without chaz, morph or chavs, house prices are still falling.

    Like I say, once mortgage interest payments, EA fees, stamp duty, the cost of moving (to live in) or void periods (for renting) are taken into consideration, buying a property has been a poor investment throughout most of the last four years.

    I'm sorry if this doesn't go down well with other posters on this site. Property went on an incredible credit-fuelled bull run for the best part of a decade. Those days are over, long over.

    • 21 March 2011 16:53 PM
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    Oh god Rant, don’t ask me haven’t got a clue, no one has really.

    Interesting point is that im miles from the Midlands, got family up there and I believe it’s pretty bleak in some parts at the moment with unemployment and so on?

    Im told that if you are a ‘professional’ that finds them self on the dole you cant even find a cab driving job as so many immigrants have come in and filled that market and getting a factory job is also as hard as there are so many over qualified people for these jobs that the hourly rate is pathetic.

    Commuting isn’t ideal as the area was developed over many years to be self sufficient so everyone lived and worked in the same place and lots of government agencies and bodies are based there so there is quite a feeling of impending doom……………I also believe that there is a high number of households in considerable arrears on their mortgage?

    The point is you might just be in the right place to bag a bargain, it’s just that not all regions are under the same pressures are they? And as the estate agency world is mainly made up of small 1 & 2 office firms most of us only really care about our own post code area rather than national stats.

    Agree with you on IR’s though, if they start to rise before all the bonuses’ and commission schemes most people round here seem to be on get back then there might be a problem for some but to date the idea of hardship amongst people I know is keeping there car for longer, going to Spain not the Maldives (camping has become big aswell) for holiday or your Mrs going out to work on the till at M&S

    Different areas, different issues, different movement in prices?

    Jonnie

    • 21 March 2011 16:46 PM
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    CHAZ average (Excluding Housing) for the same period is 3.15%

    In real terms you are wrong Rant!

    • 21 March 2011 16:41 PM
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    Over to you to explain why in real terms average growth of 4.4% is a fall.

    • 21 March 2011 16:29 PM
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    Oh, and a big thanks for backing up my point that house prices are falling in real terms...

    • 21 March 2011 16:06 PM
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    Dear

    Let's keep a check on those figures over the coming months eh?

    Come on then Pee Bee & Jonnie, let's have a round number from you gentlemen as well!

    • 21 March 2011 16:05 PM
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    Jonnie:

    "One simple question? With a one number (%) answer, you can tell me that surely?"

    - apparently not! ;0)

    • 21 March 2011 15:53 PM
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    I do

    Jan 2001 £87,128

    Peak Market November 2007- £183,136

    Fell to £152,441 in May 2009

    Up to £163, 177 in January 2011

    (163177 divide 87128) X to 1/10 years = 6.48% average growth in 10 years


    Since May 2009

    (163177 divide 152441) X to 1/19 months = 0.36% growth per month

    1.0036 X to 12 months = 4.4% annual growth since May 2009.


    Rant you have missed the boat (again)

    • 21 March 2011 15:51 PM
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    "The sale will include flats expected to go for £21,000 – 75% down from their peak value."

    Hmmm - that's NOT what I see looking at the online catalogue. There are three flats for sale at what the auction catalogue states as "Reserve not to exceed €35,000" Now unless someone moved the goalposts this morning, that would be around £30,500 by my reckoning. And that is the RESERVE.

    Auction properties WILL sell for below market value - that we all know. What they WILL sell for, is the most that a buyer will pay at that auction. Let out at nearly £5k per annum average each, I would surmise that the offers will be WAY in excess of any £21 grand...

    Let's just see what happens, eh?

    THEN let's judge the values...

    • 21 March 2011 15:50 PM
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    Jonnie - I'll assume your reference to UK house prices collapsing is a theoretical one!

    There are some (not on this site I might hasten to add) who look at historical trends and can make an argument for a 50% reduction. I think that's off the mark. Comparing prices to the 90s is an unfair starting point as well. Markets aren't always rational and can undershoot on the way down though so who knows. Who would have predicted flats in Ireland starting at 75% off peak?

    Calling the bottom of the market is a fool's game. I'm after value and where I am (West Mids) on the whole I don't see it - nevermind a spring bounce, some EAs could do with spring cleaning certain properties that have been on their books two years plus and not come down in price.

    Where I want house price to be and where they will go are of course totally separate. Buyers of anything want the chepaest price they can get (factoring in quality as well). However, with interest rates only set to rise, supply to the market increasing and transaction levels low, these are all indicators that even most EAs would suggest price falls.

    The other consideration is that these are not normal times - public sector cuts, the rises in the cost of living etc are also factors that would normally lead to lower house prices.

    Furthermore, other countries' experiences, while not 100% directly comparable to the UK, do point to now perhaps not being the best time to buy a property in the UK.

    In short, I'll wait. Once the indices show three sustained months of increasing prices and IRs are off the floor, only then would I consider making a purchase.

    • 21 March 2011 15:33 PM
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    Rant,

    Alright, it was asking a bit much for all that but worth a try, no matter.

    So, lets all agree that UK house prices are going to collapse – big time. Using that little flat in Ireland as our sample where it’s lost 75% of its value.

    So, prices fall in the area you want to buy in / live in, what size drop from today’s prices do you want to see before you buy?

    One simple question? With a one number (%) answer, you can tell me that surely?

    Jonnie

    • 21 March 2011 14:57 PM
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    You liked my list Pee Bee? Were you en route to Damascus over the weekend ;)

    Jonnie - I don't want to buy a BTL flat. Not very practical at maintenance you see. I'm also a radical heretic - interested in property as a home rather than an investment.

    Lets see, facts re 2001 to 2011. I don't have that exact data to hand. I imagine it would go something along the lines of this though - house prices double up to 2007 on the back of a credit fuelled bubble, which by 2008 sees many banks facing collapse. The realisation that many people will be unable to pay their debts in the resulting economic chaos sees interest rates cut to 300 year lows. While this supports house prices to an extent in the years after, banks no longer have the money to lend at such prices and transaction volumes decline significantly.

    • 21 March 2011 14:42 PM
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    rantnrave; You missed the all-important (delete as appropriate) from your otherwise very good list -
    *Mr Realising Reality says it WILL happen and it will be HIM that causes it

    SILLY YOU...! ;0)

    • 21 March 2011 14:20 PM
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    What are the facts Jan 2001 to Jan 2011 (trough to trough)?

    • 21 March 2011 13:18 PM
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    Rant,

    So what you’re saying is those £21,000 flats are 75% off peak prices and still not cheap enough for you?

    I think we should both make sure we see the auction results and have a chat then, if nothing sold you are right, if a load of the lots shift then im right – you happy to run with that? (I don’t really expect you to comment on that)

    As you are a regular here now it would be interesting to know what region you live in and more about you, we’ve done this a couple of weeks ago but if you are a 30 something, £25k a year chap living in an area with an average house price in line with the Nationwide index and facing the chance of redundancy and worrying about the cut in Child Benefit then I think you are a Mr Average according to the figures, but I didn’t think Mr Average existed??

    To kick this off im the following

    1. 30 Something (just)
    2. Live in the Home Counties in a £400,000 ish detached house
    3. Got on house ladder at 23
    4. Only income is my salary (Mrs Jonnie doesn’t work) of £100,000, down from around £150,000 pre 2008
    5. 3 Kids all still at school
    6. Face threat of loosing job / everything everyday by being in property


    You’re turn

    Jonnie

    • 21 March 2011 13:09 PM
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    Dear

    My apolgies for quoting facts.

    Next time I'll try to stick to commonly held myths.

    • 21 March 2011 13:01 PM
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    @Jonnie don't bother trying. Rant just sits at the back and knows best.

    Confining the history of property prices to 2007 suits the point he is trying to make.

    The statement " in real terms" means nothing without qualification.

    You can give him evidence of a 3 month localised growth of 11.9% and he will come up with a reason why it hasn't happened. even if the folk involved are now moved in.

    He doesn't understand x to the y mathematics enough to realise the implications of 0.3% here, 0.4% there

    Rant lives in a world where what he says goes. He dismisses 9% average compound growth and 5% yield as nothing. You are wasting your time even bothering to engage with him.

    • 21 March 2011 12:44 PM
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    Jonnie, I'll make a point I made to Pee Bee a few weeks back. Forgive me if you saw that then...

    In the years building up to 2007, property was the best investment out there, leading to the highest and fastest returns. We can debate why that might or might not have been. However, the fact remains that in the last four years property has been a poor investment. Indeed, in three of the last four years it has on average fallen in value in real terms.

    Smart investors are not waiting in the wings to snap up flats and terraces that are falling in price. They have moved on. Gold, precious metals and, in some cases, the stockmarket, have all provided considerably better returns than property in recent years.

    I expect that this news is not going to be appreciated by the eyes of EAs who have no doubt done very well from the BTL boom in the years before the credit crunch. Consider this though, at the beginning of 2011, MoneyWeek magazine, which is a biggie in terms of readership of investors, ran a story with a headline in bold caps: WHY IT'S TIME TO GET OUT OF UK PROPERTY NOW

    Historically, a 5% yield on an investment isn't great either - that's barely treading water against inflation at the moment. The asset that is generating that yield is slipping in value too. There are risk-free, no maintenance, savings deals that offer similar returns for far less hassle.

    • 21 March 2011 12:05 PM
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    Rant,

    We do much better when we don’t waste airtime on arguing so im going to try and find some common ground with you and see how we go………………

    So, flats for £20,000? Let’s start with that, it’s not a lot of money, its second hand car money, so if you have £20k in Nat West could / should you buy one of these flats and rent it?

    If you can get more that £90 quid a month you have a 5% return, seems okay to me?

    Jonnie

    • 21 March 2011 11:39 AM
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    This could never happen in the UK because (delete as appropriate):

    * Our banks have plenty of money to lend out to support current house prices
    * Interest Rates are already high and likely to come down
    * With the costs of living in this country continuing to fall, people have more money to spend on buying houses
    * Increased government spending will create more jobs in the public sector
    * We're worth it / different / special...

    • 21 March 2011 11:15 AM
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    Are we going to have the same situation in the UK as British buy to let investors go bust in the next couple of years?

    • 21 March 2011 11:06 AM
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