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Written by rosalind renshaw

Gloomy housing market reports should not be reported without the geographical context being made clear.

That is the view of Eric Walker, boss of London agents Bushells, who takes exception to doom-laden reporting of the housing market, which apparently shows everything heading south, including the south.

This follows the latest RICS report (our favourite!) which is, of course, its usual model of clarity.

The gist of it is that the number of estate agents who say that prices fell exceeded those reporting gains by 44 percentage points.

Nope, we don’t really understand that bit either, so we skipped to the end and found some chartered surveyors lamenting the slow market in places like Liverpool.

But Walker said: “In the areas of London we cover, these claims simply are not accurate. November was a hugely successful month and Bushells’ biggest problem was lack of stock.

“Applicant levels were up year on year. December 8 was a landmark day with more offers received than on any day in 2010.

“One negotiator in Fulham recorded five offers and agreed four sales that happy Wednesday alone. 

“Our figures are entirely at odds with the RICS claims and we are struggling to meet demand. I am not suggesting that the RICS are wrong, I am suggesting that a generalised overview is misleading.”

Walker said: “This is not attack on the RICS as their report will contain more detail. The public, however, are unlikely to read it in full.”

Your views as always will be welcome. You can read the whole of Walker’s blog  here

Comments

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    Always a pleasure PeeBee

    Since we all need a roof over our heads, everyone has a vested interest in property prices, either up or down. That much is undeniable.

    I don't think it's as simple as those who have got a mortgage (not necessarily outright owners) wanting prices to go up and those who don't venting their frustrations on the HPC site. There are parents who have bought a house and would like prices to come down so it is relatively cheaper to upsize. Also, parents who own but would like lower prices so their children don't have to borrow so much.

    From personal experience, I find much of the media coverage of house prices in this country falls along the lines of 'prices up is good news' and 'prices down is bad news'. I think we can both agree that things are more complicated than that!

    • 16 December 2010 17:29 PM
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    rantnrave: Just when I was beginning to like you... ;0)

    You only have to look at this site's archive to see the press articles - and you know that! Similarly, HPC website ONLY reports (as far as I can see...) those stories either heralding impending housing market doom, or those that it wishes its' readers to rip the wassname out of. I would argue that there is no such thing as a 'balanced' opinion, as no-one has one. You either own a property and are quite happy for it to make money, or you want to own one and therefore want the price down as low as possible. Those who are in the centre position (own one but want another - bigger, newer, whatever...) want their CURRENT property to be worth top dollar, and the value of their next acquisition to miraculously fall into a black hole within a week of each other!

    Like I said, it's all about statistics, percentages - and how you use them that controls what the article says. Example (and lifted from an article on the HPC website for ease of identification...): 38 percent of buyers think that property is currently overvalued. NOT 62% of buyers think that property is currently correctly (...or under-...) valued!

    Glass half empty...?

    Anyway - I never got to thank you for your candid response to the questions I posed you on another thread. Knowing where you are coming from makes life so much easier, rantnrave - and I hope a platform that will allow much pleasant debate in future.

    Like you said - HPC and property industry don't HAVE to fight - we simply have entirely different viewpoints to defend. Pleasure to do so without antagonistic name calling! ;0)

    • 16 December 2010 17:13 PM
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    Funny - I just actually the survey. Oddly, in my patch - hardly any of the surveyors are estate agents of any note whatsever! New buyer enquiries are reported as having increased in London!! Huge regional variations. Scotland is included. Under 300 surveyors responded. I am with Eric on this. I studied maths at uni (for all the good it did me) and the sample provides no meaningful stats other than a snapshot UK overview.

    • 16 December 2010 16:33 PM
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    It odd really. Bushells has an opinion and takes the trouble to stand up and be counted. Some agree - some dont. That's how the world works. Its all about opinion.

    I just find it incredible that some use insults calling the author a 'numpty' whilst hiding behind and pseudonym - unless he really is called 'Fortescue-Smyth' in which case I offer my sympathy.

    These people really annoy me - not an ounce of original thought but happy to know those who at least try and redress what they see as an imbalance.

    • 16 December 2010 16:18 PM
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    PeeBee - do you have any specific examples of this country's media giving an unbalanced and overtly negative report on house price figures? I do hope you're not about to suggest the Daily Express?

    • 16 December 2010 16:03 PM
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    Ray: Normally I agree with your posts wholeheartedly. Your vast experience of the industry allows you to comment knowledgeably, sensibly, and having 'been there, done that' several times you have forgotton more than some will ever stick around long enough to learn.

    HOWEVER, on this occasion I think you are off the mark. This news IS getting published - in newspapers; on TV and radio; online - and the property industry has no way to counter it. It is very rare that the media offer their audience a balanced view; almost never do the trade leaders have the opportunity to put forward their voice. EAT simply report these stories so that (supposedly) we who need to know can see them in one concentrated lump. This, in itself, shows how negative this press is - fifty doom stories for every one glimmer of light. I call it 'Death by 1000 column inches'. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. You may not read every paper; see or hear every news report - so this is the perfect way to keep on top of them.

    The problem that DOES exist is when those (mainly outside of the industry) who wish to use these news items for their own purposes use the comments section as a soapbox, knowing that google or bing will throw them up, thus adding coal to the supposedly raging fires of a house price crash. Surely individuals should be able to voice their own opinions of this and other news items?

    ALL of these reports are based upon 'fact'. It is HOW the fact is reported that makes all the difference. For every single percentage point there are 99 others which need to be considered. You of all I am sure appreciate this.

    You will never stop people from using the internet as a platform for their own purposes.

    At least this way, Agents are given some space on the platform.

    • 16 December 2010 15:43 PM
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    There was a time when UK PLC used to invent innovate and produce now all it seems to produce is shysters in lightweight suits thinking that a quick buck investment is business. Houses should be included in CPI/RPI and when they start to inflate true life inflation figures would result and the BOE would have to act accordinly with interest rates to curtail it. Houses are homes for people and families not investment vehicles for the lazy.

    • 16 December 2010 15:25 PM
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    I agree with Ray's comment.

    The start of this article reads: Gloomy housing market reports should not be reported without the geographical context being made clear.

    Put another way, once the national figures start going negative, EAs would like to use different measures. This smacks of a football team coming in at halftime at 3-0 down and wanting to change the rules of the game...

    As has already been commented, EAs weren't bleating about this when prices were reported to be going up!

    • 16 December 2010 15:14 PM
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    Does any other industry do so much to destroy confidence in their business and of their customers?

    Isn't it time to give this subject a rest, including EAT. Wait for the next Land Registry figures. Everyone can then start basing their opinions again on facts.

    • 16 December 2010 15:06 PM
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    I think this whole debate is a case of 'be careful what you wish for'. Removing figures for the south of England so regional stats can be given would suddenly bring the current falls in Wales and the North much more into view.

    Having said that, EAs need not fear falling prices, since they can make more fees on higher transactions levels, right...?

    • 16 December 2010 14:25 PM
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    Fortesque-smith; "The whole point of a survey is that it represents the market as a whole" - why not get a report for Europe, the Northern hemisphere, or perhaps the world. The reason - because it is meaningless. Every bit of data ever encountered requires a breakdown. Eric is right - its meaningless for people in Brighton to rely on figures that include Liverpool. If you were right, there would be no property hotspots.

    Do you think Countrywide just report their sales en mass or do you think they look at what each region and office and even what each neg is doing? Its the same thing mate.

    • 16 December 2010 14:21 PM
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    There are some fools on here who seem to relish the prospect of prices plummeting. Its insane really. 56% of the nations wealth is in property. If prices fall as much as some reckon - there will be masses of negative equity, repossessions, and UK plc may as well close down.

    No one has yet made an accurate prediction - so why will it be different this time?

    Most surveyors get their comps from agents anyway. There were probably only 200 respondents as in their last survey. Eric is right - what happens in YOUR area is very different from what happens in Belfast, or Penzance. There need to be context. Local press aren't interested in local stats.

    • 16 December 2010 14:12 PM
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    I think this article is absolutely what is needed. Broad overviews do NOT provide consumer with proper advice. all this talk that agents forced prices up is idiotic. An agents job is to get the best price. When a value is provided, many vendors want to try for more. Lenders send out valuers who endorse the sale price - how is this the agents fault?

    There is plenty of information available to buyers enabling them to check prices. Agents can not and should not determine prices. The market does that.

    How many predicted prices would continue to tumble. They haven't in London. I am busy with new cases even in December. Walker has said what many think - well done.

    • 16 December 2010 14:05 PM
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    Boredofmarkups,

    We didn’t all like the data when it went up mate.

    Individual areas etc have different influences on them so when all the reports said up some sellers just added whatever the rise was to what they already had in mind, bit like you simply taking the last Nationwide Monthly figure off what you have in mind

    If you are waiting for the 3 x salary / average house price thing you could have a long wait depending on where you are looking to buy, on the other hand, in some areas its already happened, normally have to go a bit further North. But the 3 times £25k (ish thing) can buy you something if you look about a bit.

    That is also what this bloke has said, clearly as well.

    Jonnie

    P.s – in the spirit of your really funny name Im bored of ill informed amateur property pundits that don’t have a clue

    • 16 December 2010 12:52 PM
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    Why don't you EAs get ready to mark down 15-20% from Jan11. Only then will you shift over-priced properties before your competitors do.

    The "good times" are gone. You were'nt whining when the reports
    gave out ever increasing prices were you.

    • 16 December 2010 12:33 PM
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    Only report bad news... Are you "%^"$^"^ kidding me. We are only where we are because for most of the last 15 years everybody has been reporting exactly the opposite. And while we're at it, how about citing an example of one of you complaining about prices being hyped up and reported in a better light than is justifiable. Enough with your crocodile tears. The party is over

    • 16 December 2010 11:07 AM
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    Statistics for dummies:

    The whole point of a survey is that it represents the market as a whole - it's to be expected there will be outliers but that's clearly what this guy's case is. Four sales and 10 offers in a day? Well of course we had that last week ... NOT!

    In my view the more of these surveys we get the better, we need vendors to get real about their prospects.

    What a numpty this guy is!

    • 16 December 2010 11:03 AM
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    BBC. Obviously!

    • 16 December 2010 10:51 AM
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    That blog is not interesting check this one out
    bit.ly/gNpY7V

    • 15 December 2010 20:31 PM
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    Please help this chap get started and follow his blog. theestateagent.wordpress.com

    • 15 December 2010 15:32 PM
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    Oh well, whatever you do don't tell anyone what it's really like in the North then

    At least the better news from the south props up what is going on up here

    • 15 December 2010 14:39 PM
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    rantnrave:
    Eric Walker is quite right.
    In my view a property in any given area is worth what it is worth to a purchaser if they have the ability to buy (with a mortgage or without).
    Long term property is always a good buy, agents should be more positive and stress this aspect.

    P.S.
    Is anyone else as heartily sick & tired, as I am, of this 'doom & gloom' being rammed down our throats most days by every 'Tom, Dick & Harry'?

    • 15 December 2010 14:22 PM
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    EW, well said that man but those that push the buttons won't give a hoot, too much hard work. They just want a simple "quote from an organisation".

    As it happens I'm not in the SE (been there, done that) and our best month this year was .... November, the same month RICs said it was the worst time.

    • 15 December 2010 12:28 PM
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    Dan - "Marsh & Parsons are a good example of this"

    Actually their last article on the subject was early October.

    In fairness - very seldom are agents stats ever quoted unless bad! Only the it tends to be national chains and generalised reporting. I agree with EW on this

    • 15 December 2010 10:13 AM
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    oh cock.....i ment coal

    • 15 December 2010 10:10 AM
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    what's Cheryl got to do with it???

    • 15 December 2010 10:04 AM
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    at least property seems to be hotting up in Rome nowadays

    • 15 December 2010 10:02 AM
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    At last! The opinion of somebody working at the cole face of the industry rather than some jumped up portal owner.

    • 15 December 2010 10:01 AM
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    When the Subprime crisis kicked in and US house prices started tanking, people said 'That's an American problem and it wont happen over here'.

    Then prices started tumbling in Ireland and Spain. People said 'That's a Eurozone problem and it wont happen here'.

    When Northern Irish house prices showed significant falls, people said 'That's a Northern Irish problem and it wont happen here'.

    Now the British regions are showing real falls year on year. People are saying 'That's a problem that doesn't affect the South East and it wont happen here...'

    Any guesses what comes next?

    • 15 December 2010 10:00 AM
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    Of course you can influence the media. There are plenty of agencies who invest in PR and are invited to comment on house prices in the media on a regular basis. Marsh & Parsons are a good example of this.

    • 15 December 2010 09:58 AM
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    DAVE HARE "Rather than complaining, agents could take the initiative and provide an interpretation of the data for their local market and media."

    What a silly comment. IF we could determine what the media report then great. We can. We write editorial, submit data - not a sausage. The BBC hold the RICS in some sort of saint like esteem - yet in reality they are not on the same planet.

    • 15 December 2010 09:46 AM
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    We provide data month in month out - but the Beeb aren't interested in local data - only sensationalist BAD news. I have complained to the BBC London website - but they said that our reports were no more than an advert. Besides - who do the public believe - local agents or the BBC?

    • 15 December 2010 09:38 AM
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    Most of the HPI's give regional data, but national press report on the national (meaningless) average. Rather than complaining, agents could take the initiative and provide an interpretation of the data for their local market and media.

    • 15 December 2010 09:28 AM
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    Excellent stuff. Eric's blog article is top drawer. Its true that only bad news is reported and even worse spin put on by the media. Lots of our vendors ask about the market and lots of buyers are reluctant to offer as they assume it will get worse next year.

    • 15 December 2010 09:15 AM
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    Spot on. About time someone stood up and said what everyone else is thinking. Well said!

    • 15 December 2010 09:12 AM
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